The number of Green Top taxis and EZCab taxis arriving in a randomly chosen 10-minute period at the airport taxi bay may be assumed to be independent Poisson variables with mean 3 and 5 respectively.

  1. ((i))

    Show that the probability that at least 7 taxis arrive at the taxi bay in a randomly chosen 10-minute period is 0.687.

  2. ((ii))

    In a randomly chosen 10-minute period, at least 7 taxis arrived. Find the probability that all these taxis were EZCab taxis.

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Worked solution

7((i))

1. Define the combined random variable and its distribution.

Let XX and YY be the number of Green Top and EZCab taxis arriving in a 10-minute period respectively.
Since X∼Po(3)X \sim \text{Po}(3) and Y∼Po(5)Y \sim \text{Po}(5) are independent, the total number of taxis T=X+YT = X + Y follows a Poisson distribution:
T∼Po(3+5)T \sim \text{Po}(3 + 5)
T∼Po(8)T \sim \text{Po}(8)

2. Calculate the probability that at least 7 taxis arrive.

P(T≥7)=1−P(T≤6)\text{P}(T \ge 7) = 1 - \text{P}(T \le 6)
=1−0.313374= 1 - 0.313374
=0.686626= 0.686626
≈0.687 (to 3 s.f.)\approx 0.687 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.6870.687 (shown)

7((ii))

1. Set up the conditional probability expression for the event.

Let XX and YY be the number of Green Top and EZCab taxis arriving in a 10-minute period, respectively. Let W=X+YW = X + Y be the total number of taxis.
Given that W≥7W \ge 7, the event that 'all these taxis were EZCab taxis' means that X=0X = 0 and Y≥7Y \ge 7.
P(X=0∣W≥7)=P(X=0 and Y≥7)P(W≥7)P(X=0 \mid W \ge 7) = \frac{P(X=0 \text{ and } Y \ge 7)}{P(W \ge 7)}

2. Calculate the numerator using the independence of $X$ and $Y$.

Since XX and YY are independent:
P(X=0 and Y≥7)=P(X=0)×P(Y≥7)P(X=0 \text{ and } Y \ge 7) = P(X=0) \times P(Y \ge 7)
With X∼Po(3)X \sim \text{Po}(3) and Y∼Po(5)Y \sim \text{Po}(5):
P(X=0)=e−3≈0.049787P(X=0) = e^{-3} \approx 0.049787
P(Y≥7)=1−P(Y≤6)≈1−0.762183=0.237817P(Y \ge 7) = 1 - P(Y \le 6) \approx 1 - 0.762183 = 0.237817
P(X=0 and Y≥7)≈0.049787×0.237817≈0.011840P(X=0 \text{ and } Y \ge 7) \approx 0.049787 \times 0.237817 \approx 0.011840

3. Evaluate the final conditional probability using the result from part (i).

From part (i), P(W≥7)≈0.686626P(W \ge 7) \approx 0.686626.
Probability=0.0118400.686626≈0.017244\text{Probability} = \frac{0.011840}{0.686626} \approx 0.017244
≈0.0172 (to 3 s.f.)\approx 0.0172 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.01720.0172

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