The number of Green Top taxis and EZCab taxis arriving in a randomly chosen 10-minute period at the airport taxi bay may be assumed to be independent Poisson variables with mean 3 and 5 respectively.

  1. (i)

    Show that the probability that at least 7 taxis arrive at the taxi bay in a randomly chosen 10-minute period is 0.687.

  2. (ii)

    In a randomly chosen 10-minute period, at least 7 taxis arrived. Find the probability that all these taxis were EZCab taxis.

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Worked solution

7(i)

1. Define the combined random variable for the total number of taxis.

Let XX be the number of Green Top taxis and YY be the number of EZCab taxis arriving in a 10-minute period.
X∼Po(3)X \sim \text{Po}(3) and Y∼Po(5)Y \sim \text{Po}(5).
Let T=X+YT = X + Y be the total number of taxis.
Since XX and YY are independent, T∼Po(3+5)T \sim \text{Po}(3 + 5), so T∼Po(8)T \sim \text{Po}(8).

2. Set up the probability expression using the complement rule.

We want to find the probability of at least 7 taxis arriving, which is P(T≥7)\text{P}(T \ge 7).
P(T≥7)=1−P(T≤6)\text{P}(T \ge 7) = 1 - \text{P}(T \le 6)

3. Evaluate the probability to show the required result.

Using a graphing calculator to evaluate the Poisson cumulative distribution function:
P(T≤6)≈0.31337\text{P}(T \le 6) \approx 0.31337
P(T≥7)=1−0.31337=0.68663\text{P}(T \ge 7) = 1 - 0.31337 = 0.68663
P(T≥7)≈0.687 (to 3 s.f.)\text{P}(T \ge 7) \approx 0.687 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

\text{Shown}

7(ii)

1. Define variables and set up the conditional probability statement.

Let X∼Po(3)X \sim \text{Po}(3) be the number of Green Top taxis, Y∼Po(5)Y \sim \text{Po}(5) be the number of EZCab taxis, and T=X+Y∼Po(8)T = X + Y \sim \text{Po}(8) be the total number of taxis in a 10-minute period.

We want the probability that all taxis are EZCab given that at least 7 taxis arrived. For all taxis to be EZCab, the number of Green Top taxis must be zero (X=0X = 0). If X=0X = 0 and T≥7T \ge 7, then YY must be ≥7\ge 7.

Required probability=P(X=0 and Y≥7∣T≥7)\text{Required probability} = \text{P}(X = 0 \text{ and } Y \ge 7 \mid T \ge 7)
=P(X=0 and Y≥7)P(T≥7)= \frac{\text{P}(X = 0 \text{ and } Y \ge 7)}{\text{P}(T \ge 7)}

2. Calculate the probability of the intersection using independence.

Since the arrivals of Green Top and EZCab taxis are independent:
P(X=0 and Y≥7)=P(X=0)×P(Y≥7)\text{P}(X = 0 \text{ and } Y \ge 7) = \text{P}(X = 0) \times \text{P}(Y \ge 7)

Using the Poisson formulas or a graphing calculator:
P(X=0)=e−3≈0.049787\text{P}(X = 0) = e^{-3} \approx 0.049787
P(Y≥7)=1−P(Y≤6)≈1−0.762183=0.237817\text{P}(Y \ge 7) = 1 - \text{P}(Y \le 6) \approx 1 - 0.762183 = 0.237817

P(X=0 and Y≥7)≈0.049787×0.237817≈0.011840\text{P}(X = 0 \text{ and } Y \ge 7) \approx 0.049787 \times 0.237817 \approx 0.011840

3. Evaluate the final conditional probability.

Using the unrounded probability from part (i), P(T≥7)=1−P(T≤6)≈0.686626\text{P}(T \ge 7) = 1 - \text{P}(T \le 6) \approx 0.686626.

P(all EZCab∣T≥7)=0.0118400.686626≈0.017244\text{P}(\text{all EZCab} \mid T \ge 7) = \frac{0.011840}{0.686626} \approx 0.017244

Rounding to 3 significant figures, we get 0.01720.0172.

Answer

0.01720.0172

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