The masses, in grams, of the packets of semolina flour follow the distribution N(225,  252)N(225,\;25^2) and the masses, in grams, of the packets of millet flour follow the distribution N(μ,  σ2)N(\mu,\;\sigma^2).

  1. (a)

    Find the probability that 4 times the mass of a packet of semolina flour is between 0.85 kilograms and 1.05 kilograms.

  2. (b)

    Let MM be the mean mass of 3 packets of semolina flour and 2 packets of millet flour. Given that P(M<125)=P(M>265)=0.02P(M<125)=P(M>265)=0.02, show that the value of μ\mu is 150. Hence, by finding an equation involving σ\sigma, find the value of σ\sigma.

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Worked solution

7(a)

1. Define the random variable and formulate the required probability, ensuring units are consistent.

Let SS be the mass, in grams, of a packet of semolina flour.
S∼N(225,252)S \sim \text{N}(225, 25^2)

Convert kilograms to grams:
0.85 kg=850 g0.85 \text{ kg} = 850 \text{ g}
1.05 kg=1050 g1.05 \text{ kg} = 1050 \text{ g}

We require the probability P(850<4S<1050)P(850 < 4S < 1050).

2. Simplify the inequality and evaluate the probability using a graphing calculator.

P(850<4S<1050)=P(8504<S<10504)P(850 < 4S < 1050) = P\left(\frac{850}{4} < S < \frac{1050}{4}\right)
=P(212.5<S<262.5)= P(212.5 < S < 262.5)

Using the graphing calculator:
P(212.5<S<262.5)≈0.62465P(212.5 < S < 262.5) \approx 0.62465
≈0.625 (to 3 s.f.)\approx 0.625 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

0.6250.625

7(b)

1. Express the expected value of $M$ in terms of $\mu$.

Let SS and YY represent the mass of a packet of semolina flour and millet flour respectively. The mean mass of the 5 packets is:
M=S1+S2+S3+Y1+Y25M = \frac{S_1 + S_2 + S_3 + Y_1 + Y_2}{5}
E(M)=3E(S)+2E(Y)5=3(225)+2μ5=675+2μ5\mathrm{E}(M) = \frac{3\mathrm{E}(S) + 2\mathrm{E}(Y)}{5} = \frac{3(225) + 2\mu}{5} = \frac{675 + 2\mu}{5}

2. Use the symmetry of the normal distribution to deduce the mean of $M$ and show $\mu = 150$.

Since P(M<125)=P(M>265)=0.02\mathrm{P}(M < 125) = \mathrm{P}(M > 265) = 0.02, the distribution of MM is symmetric about its mean. Therefore, the mean of MM lies exactly halfway between 125 and 265:
E(M)=125+2652=195\mathrm{E}(M) = \frac{125 + 265}{2} = 195
Equating the expressions for the mean:
675+2μ5=195\frac{675 + 2\mu}{5} = 195
675+2μ=975675 + 2\mu = 975
2μ=300  ⟹  μ=150 (shown)2\mu = 300 \implies \mu = 150 \text{ (shown)}

3. Express the variance of $M$ in terms of $\sigma^2$.

Since the masses of individual packets are independent:
Var(M)=152[3Var(S)+2Var(Y)]\mathrm{Var}(M) = \frac{1}{5^2} [3\mathrm{Var}(S) + 2\mathrm{Var}(Y)]
Var(M)=125[3(252)+2σ2]=1875+2σ225=75+0.08σ2\mathrm{Var}(M) = \frac{1}{25} [3(25^2) + 2\sigma^2] = \frac{1875 + 2\sigma^2}{25} = 75 + 0.08\sigma^2

4. Formulate an equation for $\sigma$ using the standard normal distribution.

Given P(M<125)=0.02\mathrm{P}(M < 125) = 0.02, we standardise the variable M∼N(195,75+0.08σ2)M \sim N(195, 75 + 0.08\sigma^2):
P(Z<125−19575+0.08σ2)=0.02\mathrm{P}\left(Z < \frac{125 - 195}{\sqrt{75 + 0.08\sigma^2}}\right) = 0.02
Using the inverse normal function, the z-value corresponding to an area of 0.02 is approximately −2.0537-2.0537.
−7075+0.08σ2=−2.0537\frac{-70}{\sqrt{75 + 0.08\sigma^2}} = -2.0537

5. Solve the equation to find the value of $\sigma$.

75+0.08σ2=−70−2.0537\sqrt{75 + 0.08\sigma^2} = \frac{-70}{-2.0537}
75+0.08σ2≈34.084\sqrt{75 + 0.08\sigma^2} \approx 34.084
Squaring both sides:
75+0.08σ2≈1161.7275 + 0.08\sigma^2 \approx 1161.72
0.08σ2≈1086.720.08\sigma^2 \approx 1086.72
σ2≈13584\sigma^2 \approx 13584
σ≈116.55≈117 (to 3 s.f.)\sigma \approx 116.55 \approx 117 \text{ (to 3 s.f.)}

Answer

σ≈117\sigma \approx 117

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