一个盒子包含 1 个红色圆盘、1 个蓝色圆盘和 nn 个黄色圆盘,其中 n≥2n \ge 2。从盒子中随机无放回地抽取两个圆盘。随机变量 YY 表示从盒子中抽取的黄色圆盘的数量。

  1. (i)

    证明 P(Y=1)=4n(n+1)(n+2)\text{P}(Y = 1) = \frac{4n}{(n+1)(n+2)}。由此求 YY 的概率分布。

  2. (ii)

    证明 E(Y)=Ann+2\text{E}(Y) = \frac{An}{n+2},其中 AA 是一个待确定的常数。

  3. (iii)

    由此求 Var(Y)\text{Var}(Y),并将你的答案写成 f(n)(n+2)2(n+1)\frac{\text{f}(n)}{(n+2)^2(n+1)} 的形式,其中 f(n)\text{f}(n) 是一个待确定的二次多项式。

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完整解法

8(i)

1. Show the probability of drawing exactly 1 yellow disc by considering the two possible sequences of draws.

There are nn yellow discs and 22 non-yellow discs (1 red, 1 blue), making a total of n+2n+2 discs.
P(Y=1)=P(Yellow, Non-Yellow)+P(Non-Yellow, Yellow)\text{P}(Y = 1) = \text{P}(\text{Yellow, Non-Yellow}) + \text{P}(\text{Non-Yellow, Yellow})
P(Y=1)=(nn+2×2n+1)+(2n+2×nn+1)\text{P}(Y = 1) = \left(\frac{n}{n+2} \times \frac{2}{n+1}\right) + \left(\frac{2}{n+2} \times \frac{n}{n+1}\right)
P(Y=1)=2n(n+1)(n+2)+2n(n+1)(n+2)=4n(n+1)(n+2)\text{P}(Y = 1) = \frac{2n}{(n+1)(n+2)} + \frac{2n}{(n+1)(n+2)} = \frac{4n}{(n+1)(n+2)}

2. Find the probability of drawing 0 yellow discs.

P(Y=0)=P(Non-Yellow, Non-Yellow)\text{P}(Y = 0) = \text{P}(\text{Non-Yellow, Non-Yellow})
P(Y=0)=2n+2×1n+1=2(n+1)(n+2)\text{P}(Y = 0) = \frac{2}{n+2} \times \frac{1}{n+1} = \frac{2}{(n+1)(n+2)}

3. Find the probability of drawing 2 yellow discs.

P(Y=2)=P(Yellow, Yellow)\text{P}(Y = 2) = \text{P}(\text{Yellow, Yellow})
P(Y=2)=nn+2×n−1n+1=n(n−1)(n+1)(n+2)\text{P}(Y = 2) = \frac{n}{n+2} \times \frac{n-1}{n+1} = \frac{n(n-1)}{(n+1)(n+2)}

4. Present the probability distribution of $Y$ in a table.

The possible values for YY are 0,1,0, 1, and 22.

yy001122
P(Y=y)\text{P}(Y=y)2(n+1)(n+2)\frac{2}{(n+1)(n+2)}4n(n+1)(n+2)\frac{4n}{(n+1)(n+2)}n(n−1)(n+1)(n+2)\frac{n(n-1)}{(n+1)(n+2)}
答案

P(Y=1)=4n(n+1)(n+2) (shown)\text{P}(Y=1) = \frac{4n}{(n+1)(n+2)} \text{ (shown)}

The probability distribution of YY is:

yy001122
P(Y=y)\text{P}(Y=y)2(n+1)(n+2)\frac{2}{(n+1)(n+2)}4n(n+1)(n+2)\frac{4n}{(n+1)(n+2)}n(n−1)(n+1)(n+2)\frac{n(n-1)}{(n+1)(n+2)}

8(ii)

1. Apply the expectation formula using the probability distribution of $Y$.

From part (i), the required probabilities for the distribution of YY are P(Y=1)=4n(n+1)(n+2)\text{P}(Y=1) = \frac{4n}{(n+1)(n+2)} and P(Y=2)=n(n−1)(n+1)(n+2)\text{P}(Y=2) = \frac{n(n-1)}{(n+1)(n+2)}.
Apply the expectation formula E(Y)=∑y P(Y=y)\text{E}(Y) = \sum y\,\text{P}(Y=y):
E(Y)=0⋅P(Y=0)+1⋅P(Y=1)+2⋅P(Y=2)\text{E}(Y) = 0 \cdot \text{P}(Y=0) + 1 \cdot \text{P}(Y=1) + 2 \cdot \text{P}(Y=2)
E(Y)=1(4n(n+1)(n+2))+2(n(n−1)(n+1)(n+2))\text{E}(Y) = 1 \left( \frac{4n}{(n+1)(n+2)} \right) + 2 \left( \frac{n(n-1)}{(n+1)(n+2)} \right)

2. Simplify the expression to show the given form and determine $A$.

Combine the fractions and factorise the numerator to simplify:
E(Y)=4n+2n(n−1)(n+1)(n+2)\text{E}(Y) = \frac{4n + 2n(n-1)}{(n+1)(n+2)}
E(Y)=4n+2n2−2n(n+1)(n+2)\text{E}(Y) = \frac{4n + 2n^2 - 2n}{(n+1)(n+2)}
E(Y)=2n2+2n(n+1)(n+2)\text{E}(Y) = \frac{2n^2 + 2n}{(n+1)(n+2)}
E(Y)=2n(n+1)(n+1)(n+2)\text{E}(Y) = \frac{2n(n+1)}{(n+1)(n+2)}
Cancel the common factor (n+1)(n+1):
E(Y)=2nn+2\text{E}(Y) = \frac{2n}{n+2}
Comparing this result with the given form Ann+2\frac{An}{n+2}, we obtain A=2A = 2.

答案

E(Y)=2nn+2\text{E}(Y) = \frac{2n}{n+2}
∴A=2\therefore A = 2

8(iii)

1. Use the probability distribution from part (i) to calculate E(Y²).

From the probability distribution found in part (i), P(Y=2)=n(n−1)(n+1)(n+2)\text{P}(Y=2) = \frac{n(n-1)}{(n+1)(n+2)}.

E(Y2)=∑y2P(Y=y)\text{E}(Y^2) = \sum y^2 \text{P}(Y=y)
=(02)P(Y=0)+(12)(4n(n+1)(n+2))+(22)(n(n−1)(n+1)(n+2))= (0^2)\text{P}(Y=0) + (1^2)\left(\frac{4n}{(n+1)(n+2)}\right) + (2^2)\left(\frac{n(n-1)}{(n+1)(n+2)}\right)
=4n+4n2−4n(n+1)(n+2)= \frac{4n + 4n^2 - 4n}{(n+1)(n+2)}
=4n2(n+1)(n+2)= \frac{4n^2}{(n+1)(n+2)}

2. Apply the formula for variance using E(Y) from part (ii).

From part (ii), the constant is A=2A=2, so E(Y)=2nn+2\text{E}(Y) = \frac{2n}{n+2}.

Using the formula for variance:
Var(Y)=E(Y2)−[E(Y)]2\text{Var}(Y) = \text{E}(Y^2) - [\text{E}(Y)]^2
=4n2(n+1)(n+2)−(2nn+2)2= \frac{4n^2}{(n+1)(n+2)} - \left(\frac{2n}{n+2}\right)^2
=4n2(n+1)(n+2)−4n2(n+2)2= \frac{4n^2}{(n+1)(n+2)} - \frac{4n^2}{(n+2)^2}

3. Simplify the expression to the required algebraic form.

Find a common denominator of (n+1)(n+2)2(n+1)(n+2)^2 to combine the fractions:
Var(Y)=4n2(n+2)−4n2(n+1)(n+1)(n+2)2\text{Var}(Y) = \frac{4n^2(n+2) - 4n^2(n+1)}{(n+1)(n+2)^2}
=4n2(n+2−n−1)(n+1)(n+2)2= \frac{4n^2(n+2 - n - 1)}{(n+1)(n+2)^2}
=4n2(n+2)2(n+1)= \frac{4n^2}{(n+2)^2(n+1)}

Thus, f(n)=4n2\text{f}(n) = 4n^2, which is a quadratic polynomial as required.

答案

4n2(n+2)2(n+1)\frac{4n^2}{(n+2)^2(n+1)}

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