It is known that 8% of the population of a large city use a particular web browser called Voyager. A researcher wishes to interview people from the city who use Voyager and selects people at random, one at a time.
- (i)
Find the probability that the first person that he finds uses Voyager is the third person selected.
- (ii)
A random sample of people is now selected.
State two conditions needed for the number of people in the sample who use Voyager to be well modelled by binomial distribution.
- (iii)
Given that , use a suitable approximation to find the probability that, fewer than 10 people use Voyager.
- (iv)
Find the least value of such that the probability of at least 10 people use Voyager is more than 0.2.
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Worked solution
8(i)
1. Find the probability of a randomly selected person not using Voyager.
2. Calculate the probability that the first two people do not use Voyager and the third person does.
8(ii)
1. State the first condition in the context of the question (Independence).
Whether a person uses Voyager is independent of whether any other person uses Voyager.
2. State the second condition in the context of the question (Constant probability).
The probability that a randomly selected person uses Voyager is constant.
- Whether a person uses Voyager is independent of whether any other person uses Voyager.
- The probability that a randomly selected person uses Voyager is constant.
8(iii)
1. Define the random variable and calculate the mean and variance of the binomial distribution.
Let be the number of people out of who use Voyager.
2. State the suitable normal approximation distribution.
Since and , the binomial distribution can be suitably approximated by a normal distribution:
approximately.
3. Apply continuity correction and calculate the required probability.
We need the probability that fewer than people use Voyager, which is or .
Since we are using a continuous distribution to approximate a discrete one, we apply a continuity correction:
Using a graphing calculator with and :
8(iv)
1. Define the random variable and set up the probability inequality.
Let be the number of people out of a sample of who use Voyager.
We require the probability that at least people use Voyager to be more than :
2. Rewrite the inequality in terms of cumulative probabilities suitable for a graphing calculator.
3. Use the table function on a graphing calculator to find the least value of $n$.
Using the graphing calculator to generate a table of values for given different integer values of :
When ,
When ,
Therefore, the least value of is .
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