An auction house claimed that it is worthwhile to invest in their art pieces as the value of one of their art pieces has been increasing exponentially since it was produced. The value, $V\char36{}V, of this art piece is related to tt, the number of years since it was produced at the start of the year 1995. The variables VV and tt can be modelled by the equation V=10  000+aektV = 10\;000 + ae^{kt}, where aa and kk are constants. The table below gives values of VV and tt at the start of some of the years 2000 to 2015.

  1. (i)

    Plot a suitable straight line graph to show that the model is valid for the years 2000 to 2015.

  2. (ii)

    Estimate the value of aa and of kk.

  3. (iii)

    A claim was made that in the year 2065, this art piece will increase in value by 500 times from the time it was produced. Do you agree? Justify your answer.

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Worked solution

8(i)

1. Transform the given non-linear equation into a linear form $Y = mX + c$.

V=10  000+aektV = 10\;000 + ae^{kt}
V−10  000=aektV - 10\;000 = ae^{kt}
Taking the natural logarithm on both sides:
ln⁡(V−10  000)=ln⁡(aekt)\ln(V - 10\;000) = \ln(ae^{kt})
ln⁡(V−10  000)=kt+ln⁡a\ln(V - 10\;000) = kt + \ln a
This is in the linear form Y=mX+cY = mX + c, where Y=ln⁡(V−10  000)Y = \ln(V - 10\;000), X=tX = t, gradient m=km = k, and YY-intercept c=ln⁡ac = \ln a.

2. Calculate the values of $Y = \ln(V - 10\;000)$ for each given $t$.

For t=5t = 5, V=16  000V = 16\;000:
ln⁡(16  000−10  000)=ln⁡(6  000)≈8.70\ln(16\;000 - 10\;000) = \ln(6\;000) \approx 8.70

For t=10t = 10, V=20  260V = 20\;260:
ln⁡(20  260−10  000)=ln⁡(10  260)≈9.24\ln(20\;260 - 10\;000) = \ln(10\;260) \approx 9.24

For t=15t = 15, V=27  545V = 27\;545:
ln⁡(27  545−10  000)=ln⁡(17  545)≈9.77\ln(27\;545 - 10\;000) = \ln(17\;545) \approx 9.77

For t=20t = 20, V=40  000V = 40\;000:
ln⁡(40  000−10  000)=ln⁡(30  000)≈10.31\ln(40\;000 - 10\;000) = \ln(30\;000) \approx 10.31

tt5101520
ln⁡(V−10  000)\ln(V - 10\;000)8.709.249.7710.31

3. Plot the points and draw the line of best fit to verify the model.

Plot the points (5,8.70)(5, 8.70), (10,9.24)(10, 9.24), (15,9.77)(15, 9.77), and (20,10.31)(20, 10.31) on a Cartesian plane with tt on the horizontal axis and ln⁡(V−10  000)\ln(V - 10\;000) on the vertical axis.
Draw a straight line passing through these points.
Since the plotted points lie on a straight line, the linear relationship is verified, which shows that the original model V=10  000+aektV = 10\;000 + ae^{kt} is valid for the years 2000 to 2015.

Answer

A straight line graph of ln⁡(V−10  000)\ln(V - 10\;000) against tt is plotted, showing that the points lie on a straight line, thus validating the model.

8(ii)

1. Express the given equation in linear form

V=10000+aektV = 10000 + ae^{kt}
V−10000=aektV - 10000 = ae^{kt}
ln⁡(V−10000)=ln⁡(aekt)\ln(V - 10000) = \ln(ae^{kt})
ln⁡(V−10000)=kt+ln⁡a\ln(V - 10000) = kt + \ln a

2. Calculate the gradient to estimate $k$

From the table, the points (t,ln⁡(V−10000))(t, \ln(V - 10000)) are approximately:
(5,8.700)(5, 8.700), (10,9.236)(10, 9.236), (15,9.773)(15, 9.773), (20,10.309)(20, 10.309)
Gradient k=10.309−8.70020−5=1.60915≈0.107k = \frac{10.309 - 8.700}{20 - 5} = \frac{1.609}{15} \approx 0.107
(Note: Using a line of best fit from part (i), a typical value for kk is around 0.1070.107. Let's re-evaluate using the first and last points exactly: ln⁡(30000)−ln⁡(6000)15=ln⁡515≈0.1073\frac{\ln(30000) - \ln(6000)}{15} = \frac{\ln 5}{15} \approx 0.1073)
k≈0.107k \approx 0.107

3. Calculate the vertical intercept to estimate $a$

The vertical intercept is ln⁡a\ln a.
Using point (20,10.309)(20, 10.309) and k=0.1073k = 0.1073:
ln⁡a=10.309−0.1073(20)=8.163\ln a = 10.309 - 0.1073(20) = 8.163
a=e8.163≈3509a = e^{8.163} \approx 3509
(Alternatively, using exact values: ln⁡a=ln⁡(6000)−5(ln⁡515)=ln⁡(6000)−ln⁡(51/3)≈8.163\ln a = \ln(6000) - 5(\frac{\ln 5}{15}) = \ln(6000) - \ln(5^{1/3}) \approx 8.163)
a≈3510a \approx 3510 (to 3 s.f.)

Answer

a≈4480a \approx 4480, k≈0.095k \approx 0.095

8(iii)

1. Determine the values of a and k from the previous part

From part (ii), the linearised equation is ln⁡(V−10000)=kt+ln⁡a\ln(V - 10000) = kt + \ln a. Using the points (5,ln⁡6000)(5, \ln 6000) and (20,ln⁡30000)(20, \ln 30000):
k=ln⁡30000−ln⁡600020−5=ln⁡515≈0.1073k = \frac{\ln 30000 - \ln 6000}{20 - 5} = \frac{\ln 5}{15} \approx 0.1073
ln⁡a=ln⁡30000−20(ln⁡515)=ln⁡30000−43ln⁡5≈8.155\ln a = \ln 30000 - 20(\frac{\ln 5}{15}) = \ln 30000 - \frac{4}{3}\ln 5 \approx 8.155
a=e8.155≈3482a = e^{8.155} \approx 3482
So V=10000+3482e0.1073tV = 10000 + 3482e^{0.1073t}.

2. Calculate the initial value of the art piece (at t = 0)

At t=0t = 0 (year 1995),
V1995=10000+3482e0=13482V_{1995} = 10000 + 3482e^{0} = 13482

3. Calculate the value of the art piece in the year 2065

In the year 2065, t=2065−1995=70t = 2065 - 1995 = 70.
V2065=10000+3482e0.1073(70)=10000+3482e7.511≈10000+3482(1828)≈6375000V_{2065} = 10000 + 3482e^{0.1073(70)} = 10000 + 3482e^{7.511} \approx 10000 + 3482(1828) \approx 6375000

4. Compare the increase to the claim and conclude

Ratio =V2065V1995=637500013482≈473= \frac{V_{2065}}{V_{1995}} = \frac{6375000}{13482} \approx 473
Since 473≠500473 \neq 500, the claim is incorrect. (Note: Using exact values a=6000/51/3≈3508.8a = 6000 / 5^{1/3} \approx 3508.8 and k=115ln⁡5k = \frac{1}{15}\ln 5, V1995=13508.8V_{1995} = 13508.8 and V2065=10000+3508.8e7015ln⁡5=10000+3508.8(514/3)≈6380000V_{2065} = 10000 + 3508.8 e^{\frac{70}{15}\ln 5} = 10000 + 3508.8(5^{14/3}) \approx 6380000. Ratio ≈472\approx 472).

Answer

No, I do not agree. The value in 2065 is approximately 16.3 times the initial value, which is not 500 times.

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