The population PP, in millions, of a country was recorded on January of the various years and the results are shown in the table below.
Year2005201020152020
PP12.9514.6717.5222.11
Given that P=10+abtP = 10 + ab^t, where tt is the time measured in years from 2000 and aa and bb are constants.
lg⁡(P−10)=lg⁡a+tlg⁡b\lg(P - 10) = \lg a + t \lg b

  1. (i)

    Draw the graph of lg⁡(P−10)\lg(P - 10) plotted against tt, for 0≤t≤250 \le t \le 25.

  2. (ii)

    Use the graph to estimate the values of aa and bb.

  3. (iii)

    Explain how the graph could be used to find the year in which the population

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Worked solution

8(i)

1. Calculate the values of $t$ and $Y = \lg(P - 10)$ for each data point.

The year 2000 corresponds to t=0t = 0.
For 2005, t=5t = 5. P=12.95  ⟹  lg⁡(12.95−10)=lg⁡(2.95)≈0.470P = 12.95 \implies \lg(12.95 - 10) = \lg(2.95) \approx 0.470
For 2010, t=10t = 10. P=14.67  ⟹  lg⁡(14.67−10)=lg⁡(4.67)≈0.669P = 14.67 \implies \lg(14.67 - 10) = \lg(4.67) \approx 0.669
For 2015, t=15t = 15. P=17.52  ⟹  lg⁡(17.52−10)=lg⁡(7.52)≈0.876P = 17.52 \implies \lg(17.52 - 10) = \lg(7.52) \approx 0.876
For 2020, t=20t = 20. P=22.11  ⟹  lg⁡(22.11−10)=lg⁡(12.11)≈1.083P = 22.11 \implies \lg(22.11 - 10) = \lg(12.11) \approx 1.083

tt5101520
lg⁡(P−10)\lg(P - 10)0.4700.6690.8761.083

2. Plot the points on a graph and draw the line of best fit.

Plot the points (5,0.470)(5, 0.470), (10,0.669)(10, 0.669), (15,0.876)(15, 0.876), and (20,1.083)(20, 1.083) on a Cartesian plane with tt on the horizontal axis and lg⁡(P−10)\lg(P - 10) on the vertical axis. Draw a straight line passing through these points.

Answer

A straight line graph passing through the plotted points (5,0.470)(5, 0.470), (10,0.669)(10, 0.669), (15,0.876)(15, 0.876), and (20,1.083)(20, 1.083).

8(ii)

1. Identify the gradient and vertical intercept from the linear equation

Comparing lg⁡(P−10)=(lg⁡b)t+lg⁡a\lg(P - 10) = (\lg b)t + \lg a with Y=mX+cY = mX + c, the gradient is lg⁡b\lg b and the vertical intercept is lg⁡a\lg a.

2. Calculate the gradient to find $b$

Using points from the line of best fit (e.g., (5,0.47)(5, 0.47) and (20,1.08)(20, 1.08)):
Gradient m=1.08−0.4720−5=0.6115≈0.0407m = \frac{1.08 - 0.47}{20 - 5} = \frac{0.61}{15} \approx 0.0407
lg⁡b=0.0407  ⟹  b=100.0407≈1.10\lg b = 0.0407 \implies b = 10^{0.0407} \approx 1.10

3. Find the vertical intercept to determine $a$

From the graph, the vertical intercept c≈0.265c \approx 0.265.
lg⁡a=0.265  ⟹  a=100.265≈1.84\lg a = 0.265 \implies a = 10^{0.265} \approx 1.84

Answer

a≈1.84a \approx 1.84, b≈1.10b \approx 1.10

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